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How Will This Affect Enrollment?

Short answer: It will make things worse.

School closures don't stop enrollment decline—they accelerate it. This isn't theory. It's happening right now in San Antonio.

What's Happening in San Antonio ISD (2024)

San Antonio ISD closed 15 schools in 2024. Here's what happened:

10% of affected students (456 students) confirmed they weren't returning to the district. By August 2024, when school started, 21% of affected students—over 1,000 kids—didn't show up.

That's more than double the initial projections.

Overall, SAISD lost 691 students compared to the same day the previous year, even with 4,600 new students enrolling—showing that closures accelerate the enrollment death spiral.

And here's the kicker: A UT Austin professor who conducted an equity audit for SAISD warned trustees before the vote that the district's historical data showed past school closures resulted in academic declines.

They did it anyway. Now they're watching families leave.

Why Families Leave

Like it or not, we live in the age of school choice — charters, $10k private school vouchers, online schools, and home school.

1. Trust Is Broken

"If they'll close my school, what's next?" Parents don't stick around to find out. School closures signal district instability, pushing families toward charters, private schools, or other districts.

2. Neighborhood Schools Matter

Parents choose AISD specifically for their neighborhood school. Take that away and the reason to stay disappears.

  • •more driving = less convenient
  • •Lost community connections = less investment
  • •Disrupted friendships = unhappy kids

3. Each Transition Is an Exit Ramp

Every time you force a family to change schools, you're giving them a chance to reconsider AISD entirely. Many won't come back.

The Enrollment Death Spiral

Here's how this plays out:

  1. 1.District closes schools to save money due to enrollment decline
  2. 2.Families leave because of closures
  3. 3.Enrollment declines further
  4. 4.Budget problems worsen (lost per-pupil funding)
  5. 5.District considers more closures
  6. 6.Repeat

We're literally creating the problem we're trying to solve.

The Math That Should Terrify the Board

Current plan changes the boundary of 98% of schools!

If just 10% of affected families leave AISD (what SAISD saw initially):

  • •7,000 students lost
  • •At $6,000+ per student in state funding
  • •$42+ million in lost revenue

All for a supposed $13M in savings.

Moving Kids to Worse Schools

Let's be blunt about what's happening:

The plan moves students from higher-performing to lower-performing schools.

Research is crystal clear: this harms academic outcomes for:

  • •The students being moved (disruption + lower expectations)
  • •The students already at receiving schools (overcrowding + strained resources)
  • •Literally everyone involved

Why would any parent stay in a district doing this to their kid?

What Actually Stabilizes Enrollment

Make schools worth staying for:

  • •Invest in facilities and programs
  • •Offer unique magnet programs
  • •Improve campus culture and leadership
  • •Listen to what families actually want
  • •Build trust, don't destroy it

Austin is growing. AISD enrollment is shrinking. That's a district problem, not a demographic problem.

Families are choosing against AISD. Closures will make that choice easier.

Questions the Board Must Answer

  1. 1.

    What's your enrollment projection if 10%, 15%, 21% of affected families leave?

    (San Antonio lost 21%. Show us why Austin would be different.)

  2. 2.

    How many students are moving from higher-performing to lower-performing schools?

    (Exact numbers. Not percentages. Names of schools.)

  3. 3.

    What evidence do you have that closures will stabilize enrollment?

    (San Antonio's closures accelerated decline. What makes AISD different?)

  4. 4.

    What's the plan when enrollment drops further and you've already closed 12 schools?

    (Close more? When does it stop?)

  5. 5.

    How will receiving schools maintain quality with 20-30% more students?

    (Specific plans. Not vague promises.)

  6. 6.

    What support will displaced students receive?

    (Counseling? Transition teams? Or just "good luck"?)

The Real Solution

Fix why families are leaving, don't force out more families.

  • •Address safety and bullying concerns
  • •Improve academic programs
  • •Modernize facilities
  • •Recruit and retain great teachers
  • •Fight for adequate state funding
  • •Make AISD the obvious choice for Austin families

You can't save your way to excellence. You can't close your way to growth.

The Bottom Line

School closures are a death spiral disguised as a solution.

San Antonio is proving this right now. AISD trustees need to pay attention.

Sources:

  • •Texas Public Radio, "10% of students impacted by San Antonio ISD's school closures are leaving the district," March 20, 2024
  • •Texas Public Radio, "More than 1,000 students impacted by San Antonio ISD's school closures have not returned for the new year," August 20, 2024
  • •The Texas Tribune, "San Antonio ISD board votes to close 15 schools, merge others," November 14, 2023